What actually drives the XAU/USD price from day to day?
XAU/USD moves mainly on real interest rates, the US dollar, and demand for defensive assets. When yields on inflation-protected bonds fall, gold usually becomes more attractive because it pays no yield of its own. Dollar strength works the other way. Central bank buying and ETF flows add slower pressure. None of these is a signal on its own, so treat them as context for your position size, not a forecast.
Why does gold react so strongly to US inflation and Federal Reserve news?
Gold reacts to US inflation and Fed news because those releases change expectations for real yields and the dollar. A surprise in CPI or a shift in the Fed's tone can reprice the whole curve within minutes, and XAU/USD often moves several dollars per ounce in that window. That is why the pip value on a standard lot matters: at 0.01 per pip and 100 oz per lot, a small price change is real money.
Does a weaker Kenyan shilling change how I should read gold moves?
A weaker shilling changes your funding cost and your sense of gains, not the XAU/USD chart itself. Gold is priced in US dollars, so your M-Pesa deposit converts at the prevailing rate, and the same dollar profit buys fewer or more shillings depending on where USD/KES sits. Check the conversion before you judge a trade, and use the profit calculator to see the figure in both currencies.
How much can gold move in a day, and what does that mean for my lot size?
Daily ranges in gold are wide enough that a poorly sized position can hit a stop before your view is tested. Since one pip is 0.01 and a standard lot is 100 oz, each pip on 0.10 lots is about $0.10, and a multi-dollar swing adds up quickly. Size from the stop distance and the shilling amount you are willing to lose, using the position size calculator, not from how confident you feel.
Do central bank purchases and jewellery demand still matter for price?
Central bank purchases and jewellery demand matter over months, not minutes. Official sector buying supports the market when it is sustained, and physical demand from major consumers responds to local prices. But neither tells you where XAU/USD trades after the next US data release. Use them as background for the regime you are trading in, and keep your entry and exit rules based on price and risk.
